Valuation & Forecasting

PCI provides an ideal model to support applications as diverse as:

  • Daily operational planning
  • Fuel burn forecasting
  • Asset acquisition
  • Post-analytics
  • Transaction structuring
  • Assessing emissions (and emissions compliance) impacts
  • Valuing the impact of potential plant upgrades

BENEFITS

  • Simultaneously co-optimize energy and ancillary service positions and opportunities
  • Deploy Case Comparisons to display detailed differences between two designated studies
  • Purchase/Sale Market Structure
    • Input “bid” and “ask” prices to define a commodity market
  • Stochastic analysis
    • Simulate the value and risk of a position or a portfolio
    • Generate a probabilistic distribution of profit and loss for each position as well as the entire portfolio
    • Construct tornado diagrams showing the contribution of each risk driver to the overall portfolio risk
    • Value generation assets as options based on a user-defined price model
  • Stress Testing
    Easily generate market price scenarios to analyze how a portfolio’s profit and loss would behave under varying market conditions.
  • Transaction Pricing
    • Calculate the break-even cost for proposed purchases or sales
    • Configurable to create “block prices” for a stack of generic purchases or sales

COMMON USES

Traders produce near real-time pricing grid for making off-system purchases and sales.

Portfolio Managers run post-analytics to assess operational efficiency as well as transaction and outage costing.

Planners construct hourly simulations for any time period.

Risk Analysts perform stochastic simulations to show the impact of market price volatilities, unit forced outages and load uncertainties.